KNOWLEDGEBASE - ARTICLE #427

Why is my r2 value so low, even though the line comes close to my points?

Some users have noted that their linear regression analysis returns an unexpectedly low value for r2 even though the regression line appears to fit the data points well.

This can happen when the slope of the line is very low, and indistinguishable from zero. The quantity r2 measures the degree to which knowing X helps you predict Y. If the slope is near zero, then knowing X does not help you to predict Y. So even though the line fits the data well, the r2 is (appropriately) low.



Keywords: goodness goodness-of-fit r r2 squared square r square

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